Don't Stop Believing...

04/23/2012

Cardinals 2 Cubs 3

Dear Cards,

Seriously, boys? Is this how our/your string of consecutive series going to end? At the hands of the Chicago Cubs?

I know, I know there are two more games to play in the series.  It isn't over yet, the fat lady isn't singing, don't stop believing.

Well, I can hear the fat lady running through her vocal exercises.  No offense to Adam Wainwright, but he isn't the same pitcher.  It's not his fault.  He probably won't be the Adam Wainwright of yore until August.

I am hopeful he can hold back the Cubs offense just enough that we can score enough runs to win, but the NL best offense is currently not clicking on all cylinders. (Although, maybe we are.  Yesterday's pitcher, Matt Garza,  is a good pitcher and good pitchers have the annoying tendency of shutting down good hitting.)

We really need to win this game tonight, Wainwright.  Offense, you all need to do your thing tonight (no, not the striking out and leaving a ton of men on base,  the other thing-- getting loads of hits and scoring most of the men who get on base). 

Tonight is MUST WIN if you want to have a rubber game tomorrow, if you want a chance of keeping the streak alive and winning a series tomorrow. (To state the obvious).

Adam was better last time, hopefully he'll improve even more.  Maybe this time you hitters can actually score runs while he's on the mound, too.

I feel like this is the first big test of the season-- a mid-term, if you will. It's like everything else-- Berkman going on the DL, center fielders running into walls-- were quizzes.  Although, Chris Carpenter being out indefinitely is a test.

'Til Later!

PS I hope I'm happy later tonight and not bombed out. 

That Baseball Team to the North

...No, not the Cubs, they are hardly a baseball team these days, I am speaking of the Milwaukee Brewers.

THE (RECENT) PAST:

Last year, the Cardinals and Brewers had a very volatile relationship. 

"T-Plush", the annoying alter ego of Nyger Morgan, tweeted after the Cardinals and Brewers nearly brawled in a September game  that "Where still n 1st and I hope those crying birds injoy watching tha Crew in tha Playoffs!!! Aaaaahhhh!!!"

The almost fight started because Chris Carpenter yelled after striking Morgan out.  Morgan took offense, and spit his wad of tobacco (yeah, gross) towards the mound.  During a game in August, the umpires issued Morgan a warning after he kept yelling at Carp from the dugout. (As an aside, the Cardinals and Morgan had issues when he was a member of the Washington Nationals). 

The great thing about Nyger Morgan is that he plays with heart-- a lot like Carpenter.  However, players should always respect their opponents.  This means you keep your mouth shut and let your game do the talking. Some people think that the exuberance Carp shows on the mound is disrespectful-- that he is trying to show up his opponents.  He isn't.  He is in the moment, competing, and his celebratory yells aren't usually aimed at the opposition.  Plus, he does not disrespect his opponents when interviewed-- he acknowledges their ability and congratulates great plays.

Brewers pitcher Zack Greinke said this about Carpenter before the NLCS: 

"They think his presence, his attitude out there sometimes is like a phony attitude," Greinke said. "And then he yells at people. He just stares people down and stuff. And most pitchers just don't do that. And when guys do, I guess some hitters get mad. Some hitters do it to pitchers. But when you do that some people will get mad.
"There's other pitchers in the league that do it, but, I don't know," Greinke said, "a lot of guys on our team don't like Carpenter."

So, they hate Carpenter because he is "old school"... tough.

I can't find the exact quote, but I believe it was said by a Brewers player last year.  The player spoke about how at spring training, the team they hate with a passion and think about beating is the St. Louis Cardinals.  What a compliment-- I mean, no one in the division has a vendetta against the Pittsburgh Pirates.

THIS YEAR:

Prince Fielder signed with the Detroit Tigers this off season.  The Brewers replaced some of his offense by signing former Cub, Aramis Ramirez, to play third base.  

For years, the Brewers offense-- carried by Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder-- had always been top-notched, but their pitching kept them from being a consistent contender.  Last year, the Brewers finally acquired capable pitching, and made it to the NLCS.  This year, starters Zack Greinke, Shaun Marcum, and Yovani Gallardo will probably make pitching the strongest point of the team, especially with Prince Fielder's production gone.  The Brewers also have a good bullpen.

Reigning MVP Ryan Braun had a difficult off season (he tested positive for steroids during the playoffs, but does not have to serve the 50 game suspension due to a technicality in the way the sample was handled) and it remains to be seen whether he elevates his play, or suffers from all the ridicule he'll hear on the road this season.

The Brewers have solid offense and solid pitching, but suffer on defense.  And, ultimately, it was their defense-- those seven errors in Games 5 and 6 of the NLCS-- that ended their season last year.

The Rise and Fall of Carpenter = The Rise and Fall of the Cards

Observe:

• 2003: The Cardinals sign Chris Carpenter, hoping that he'll be able to pitch by mid- season. He is not able to compete because of a muscle tear in his shoulder.
• The Redbirds finish third in the division. (They'd won the division in 2002).
• An aside: I'm not too sure this year should count, since he wasn't on the 40 man roster. 
• 2004:  Chris Carpenter re-signs with the Cards. He finishes the season with a 15-5 record. Unfortunately, a nerve problem in his bicep prevents him from pitching in the postseason.
• The Cardinals win the NL pennant, earning their first World Series appearance since 1987. 
• 2005:  Carpenter wins the NL Cy Young award with a 21-5 record. 
• Cardinals lose to the Houston Astros in the NLCS.
• 2006:  Carpenter finishes the regular season with 15-8 record.  He is healthy and pitches in the postseason.
• Cardinals win their first World Series since 1982.
• 2007: Carp pitches on Opening Day, the only game he pitches this season.  Tommy John surgery in July places him out of commission until mid-season 2008.
• Cardinals finish under .500 at 78-84, behind the Cubs and Brewers.  
• 2008: In July, Carpenter returns and makes his first of three starts before being shut down again.
• The Cardinals finish behind the Cubs, Brewers, and Astros with a 86-76 record.
• 2009: Carpenter wins NL Comeback Player of the Year, and is runner-up in the Cy Young voting.
• Cardinals win the division and lose to the Dodgers in the NLDS.
• 2010: Carp becomes an All-Star for the third time and wins 16 games.
• The Cardinals finish second in the division to Reds.
• 2011:  At the beginning of the season, Carpenter pitched well, but receive little run support. He finishes the season with only eleven victories.  He logs the most innings of all major league pitchers, when the post season is taken into account.
• Cardinals finish second in the division, and enter the post season as wild cards.  They win their eleventh World Series.
• 2012:  As of today: Carpenter is out indefinitely due to nerve irritation in his right shoulder-- sources are reporting it's similar to the shoulder discomfort he dealt with in 2008.  According to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post Dispatch, Carp will have to let his shoulder recover, then restrengthen it. This can take a matter of weeks or months.
• What will the Cardinals do this year?  I still think they'll be pretty good.  Hopefully, they'll do what they did last year when an ace went down-- accept it and move on.  I don't want to hear anything about "treading water" until Carpenter comes back.  This team can win without Carp, just like they won without Wainwright last year.    
 
tl;dr:  With the exception of 2010, every year that Carpenter was healthy and able to pitch, the Cardinals played in the post season.  And every year he wasn't able to pitch, they didn't make the post season. 
 
And that, folks, is what I call Kate-analysis!  I know, I know, very hard hitting stuff.  You may hold your applause.
 
'Til Later