The Rise and Fall of Carpenter = The Rise and Fall of the Cards

Observe:

• 2003: The Cardinals sign Chris Carpenter, hoping that he'll be able to pitch by mid- season. He is not able to compete because of a muscle tear in his shoulder.
• The Redbirds finish third in the division. (They'd won the division in 2002).
• An aside: I'm not too sure this year should count, since he wasn't on the 40 man roster. 
• 2004:  Chris Carpenter re-signs with the Cards. He finishes the season with a 15-5 record. Unfortunately, a nerve problem in his bicep prevents him from pitching in the postseason.
• The Cardinals win the NL pennant, earning their first World Series appearance since 1987. 
• 2005:  Carpenter wins the NL Cy Young award with a 21-5 record. 
• Cardinals lose to the Houston Astros in the NLCS.
• 2006:  Carpenter finishes the regular season with 15-8 record.  He is healthy and pitches in the postseason.
• Cardinals win their first World Series since 1982.
• 2007: Carp pitches on Opening Day, the only game he pitches this season.  Tommy John surgery in July places him out of commission until mid-season 2008.
• Cardinals finish under .500 at 78-84, behind the Cubs and Brewers.  
• 2008: In July, Carpenter returns and makes his first of three starts before being shut down again.
• The Cardinals finish behind the Cubs, Brewers, and Astros with a 86-76 record.
• 2009: Carpenter wins NL Comeback Player of the Year, and is runner-up in the Cy Young voting.
• Cardinals win the division and lose to the Dodgers in the NLDS.
• 2010: Carp becomes an All-Star for the third time and wins 16 games.
• The Cardinals finish second in the division to Reds.
• 2011:  At the beginning of the season, Carpenter pitched well, but receive little run support. He finishes the season with only eleven victories.  He logs the most innings of all major league pitchers, when the post season is taken into account.
• Cardinals finish second in the division, and enter the post season as wild cards.  They win their eleventh World Series.
• 2012:  As of today: Carpenter is out indefinitely due to nerve irritation in his right shoulder-- sources are reporting it's similar to the shoulder discomfort he dealt with in 2008.  According to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post Dispatch, Carp will have to let his shoulder recover, then restrengthen it. This can take a matter of weeks or months.
• What will the Cardinals do this year?  I still think they'll be pretty good.  Hopefully, they'll do what they did last year when an ace went down-- accept it and move on.  I don't want to hear anything about "treading water" until Carpenter comes back.  This team can win without Carp, just like they won without Wainwright last year.    
 
tl;dr:  With the exception of 2010, every year that Carpenter was healthy and able to pitch, the Cardinals played in the post season.  And every year he wasn't able to pitch, they didn't make the post season. 
 
And that, folks, is what I call Kate-analysis!  I know, I know, very hard hitting stuff.  You may hold your applause.
 
'Til Later